We are here to improve global epistemics and decision making with forecasting tools and applications. We want to teach probabilistic thinking and communicating uncertainty by creating interactive user-friendly tools and educational programs and materials.

Our approach

We believe that current tools that target uncertainty about the future are very challenging for non-mathematically and non-technically oriented individuals. Thus, although forecasting is one of the highest priority areas of EA with enormous potential to improve global decision making, it does not spread easily outside rationalist circles. The core of our solution is to introduce a way to communicate uncertainty using a simple user interface and illustrative visualizations. We have already demoed this solution in the Czech Association for Effective Altruism and at EA Global in London and plan to disseminate it to other EA communities abroad, incorporate it into internal forecasting applications of EA-related, government and international organizations and this way improve the decisions made on a global scale.

What kind of tools we want to develop

  • A tool for teaching the principles of forecasting, probabilistic thinking and related ideas from rationality using fun and interactive exercises for a wide range of different audiences, from students at various levels of education to EA organizations and communities. A tool that can be used to enhance the teaching of various subjects with interactive forecasts and estimates.
  • A tool that enables participants of a meeting, discussion, talk, etc. to communicate probabilistic beliefs (such as opinions about a certain decision or strategy) or estimates and easily update them as discussion progresses.
  • An internal platform that can be used by EA organizations to communicate and track beliefs and make forecasts and update them over time, aggregate them and track their changes over time. This can be also used to explore what might have caused people to change their mind over time by correlating belief updates to other events such as specific arguments being discussed.
  • A platform for easily running different kinds of forecasting experiments.
  • A tool for individuals to easily make and track forecasts about their own lives.

Who supports us

We got the initial support from the Czech Association for Effective Altruism and already presented the first version of the tool at the conference EA Global in London, EAGx Prague and GPI Workshop on Forecasting Existential Risks and the Long-Term Future.